- Week 1: 3-4
- Week 2: 2-5
- Week 3: 5-2
- Week 4: 5-2
- Week 5: 2-5
The gambling gods giveth and the gambling gods taketh away. After going 5-2 my last two weeks and putting me on the cusp of the top 40, I crap the bed and go 2-5 for the second time in five weeks. This is purely unacceptable. The silver lining is I did go 2-1 on my leans.. yaaay!
Once again, most of my losses were not even close- Texas and Wyoming were simply over matched. I knew the Iowa line was a trap, yet somehow had that one on my card, and once again, I fall victim to a 2nd half collapse with Northwestern, up 17.5 at the half (including the spread) getting outscored 28-0 in quarters 3 and 4 for me to lose.
This has been a frustrating up and down season to say the least. I read a stat somewhere that if you would bet on the top 8 ranked teams each week, so far this year, you’d be hitting winners at an 80% clip. That’s just nuts. I’ve said before, I typically am a contrarian and when the public kills the books (read: Favorites and Overs), I get slaughtered. For some reason, it’s very difficult for me to lay conference chalk knowing that I’m going with 75% of the public.
Moving onto this week, I’ve got a mixture of public plays and what I think are sharp plays. Hopefully I can get hot as the contest still isn’t even half way over and last year, I was just over .500 before Halloween weekend hit and ended up in 5th overall.
My Week 6 picks are:
- Michigan State -1.5 vs. Michigan
- UNC -2.5 vs. Miami
- Navy +4.5 at Rutgers
- Virginia +7.5 vs. Georgia Tech
- Virginia Tech -6.5 at Wake
- East Carolina -15.5 at Memphis
- Nevada -29.5 vs. New Mexico
I don’t have too many leans this week that are not already on my card. I mean, the bettor in me wants to take Texas, Miss State & Maryland, but I’m not going to pull the trigger on any of those… OK maybe Miss State if I can get 3.5.
Until next week…