Leroy’s College Challenge Week 8

October 28, 2011
  • Week 1: 3-4
  • Week 2: 2-5
  • Week 3: 5-2
  • Week 4: 5-2
  • Week 5: 2-5
  • Week 6: 6-1
  • Week 7: 2-5

Just when I’m about to turn the corner, I hit another wall.  After going a combined 18-10 the last 4 weeks, it was another soul-crossing 2-5 week.  It will now take a miracle to reach the top 10 in the overall contest. My sights are now set on the Last 4 Weeks contest, which I talked about last week, and that starts next week until the end of the season.

Once again, most of my picks were not close- UNC, WMU, ULL and Wash all got blown out more or less. NW continues to disappoint and there is no excuse there, the Cats should have absolutely covered and probably won that game.  I think this is the 3rd time this season NW has been shut out in the 2nd half of games.  Not sure how that happens, but we move on.  NC State was in an amazing situational spot last week and won outright and Ball State won, even though I didn’t even bet that game.

Onto this week we go.  There really wasn’t too much on the card I liked outside of UGA over Florida.  I think Georgia wins out and takes the SEC East title and this would be a big win for Richt and the Bulldogs.

 

My Week 8 picks are:

  • UNC -6.5 vs. Wake
  • Clemson -3.5 at GT
  • Purdue +13.5 at Michigan
  • Illinois +4.5 at Penn State
  • Iowa State +14.5 at Texas Tech
  • Georgia -2.5 vs. Florida
  • UCLA +5.5 vs. Cal

 

Again, not too much else on the card, though of my picks, I do think UCLA and Illinois win outright.  The real contest for me starts next week with the Final 4 Week contest where I hope to defend my title.

Until next week…


Leroy’s College Challenge Week 7

October 21, 2011
  • Week 1: 3-4
  • Week 2: 2-5
  • Week 3: 5-2
  • Week 4: 5-2
  • Week 5: 2-5
  • Week 6: 6-1

Finally, a rock solid week. 6-1.. woohoo!!! Think I’m finally starting to see things clearly.  Only game I lost was UNC -2.5 and they decided to take the 1st half off.  MSU, VT, ECU, Nevada all cruised, while Navy lost but covered, while Virginia knocked off GT as a 8.5 point home underdog.

This week was needed in the worst way, as I’m now back over .500 on the season, though still need two or three more 5-2 or better weeks in a row before the last 4 week stretch starts in November.  Another nice part about this contest is the Last 4 weeks contest. Whoever has the most wins over the last 4 weeks gets 10% of the overall prize pool. I won that last year by going 5-2, 6-1, 7-0 & 5-2 over the last 4 weeks which equated to about $3500 in prize money, so even if you won’t cash in the overall contest, the last 4 weeks is still there to make some money.

Onto this week… Maybe this is a good problem to have, but I had a hard time snipping teams from my list as about 11 caught my eye.  I went with the 7 below, but left off some goodies.

 

My Week 7 Picks are:

  • NC State +4.5 at Virginia
  • UNC +10.5 at Clemson
  • Western Michigan -12.5 at Eastern Michigan
  • Ball State -1.5 vs. Central Michigan
  • Northwestern +3.5 vs. Penn State
  • Washington +20.5 at Stanford
  • UL Lafayette -3 at Western Kentucky

 

Now, what’s strange is that I’m not betting the Ball State game, but because I couldn’t decide between my other leans, I just decided to throw that one into the mix, especially now because the Ball State line is creeping up towards 3.  My leans that I didn’t play are: Florida State, Kansas, Missouri and Illinois.

I am hoping I go 7-0 with my picks and 0-4 with the leans. Actually, I don’t want that because I bet all four of my leans at different numbers that were available at the contest, which is something I’ve touched on in a previous post. I really don’t like how Leroy’s typically rounds down with the hook. Perfect example is Northwestern +3.5.  NW was a 4 or 4.5 favorite just about the entire week, but for the contest, it got rounded down to 3.5. That same reasoning is why Missouri at +6.5 didn’t make the card, but Missouri +7.5 made my betting card.

For the record, out of the six games on my card that I did bet, I got a better number on ALL six of them.

Hopefully the hook won’t be my demise this week.

Until next week…


Leroy’s College Challenge Week 6

October 14, 2011
  • Week 1: 3-4
  • Week 2: 2-5
  • Week 3: 5-2
  • Week 4: 5-2
  • Week 5: 2-5

The gambling gods giveth and the gambling gods taketh away.  After going 5-2 my last two weeks and putting me on the cusp of the top 40, I crap the bed and go 2-5 for the second time in five weeks.  This is purely unacceptable.  The silver lining is I did go 2-1 on my leans.. yaaay!

Once again, most of my losses were not even close- Texas and Wyoming were simply over matched.  I knew the Iowa line was a trap, yet somehow had that one on my card, and once again, I fall victim to a 2nd half collapse with Northwestern, up 17.5 at the half (including the spread) getting outscored 28-0 in quarters 3 and 4 for me to lose.

This has been a frustrating up and down season to say the least.  I read a stat somewhere that if you would bet on the top 8 ranked teams each week, so far this year, you’d be hitting winners at an 80% clip.  That’s just nuts.  I’ve said before, I typically am a contrarian and when the public kills the books (read: Favorites and Overs), I get slaughtered.  For some reason, it’s very difficult for me to lay conference chalk knowing that I’m going with 75% of the public.

Moving onto this week, I’ve got a mixture of public plays and what I think are sharp plays.  Hopefully I can get hot as the contest still isn’t even half way over and last year, I was just over .500 before Halloween weekend hit and ended up in 5th overall.

 

My Week 6 picks are:

  • Michigan State -1.5 vs. Michigan
  • UNC -2.5 vs. Miami
  • Navy +4.5 at Rutgers
  • Virginia +7.5 vs. Georgia Tech
  • Virginia Tech -6.5 at Wake
  • East Carolina -15.5 at Memphis
  • Nevada -29.5 vs. New Mexico

 

I don’t have too many leans this week that are not already on my card.  I mean, the bettor in me wants to take Texas, Miss State & Maryland, but I’m not going to pull the trigger on any of those… OK maybe Miss State if I can get 3.5.

Until next week…


Leroy’s College Challenge Week 5

October 7, 2011
  • Week 1: 3-4
  • Week 2: 2-5
  • Week 3: 5-2
  • Week 4: 5-2

After back to back 5-2 weeks, we’re starting to get back on track.  I said I loved Duke and would of taken off Hawaii, well both dogs won outright, so can’t get mad there.  I really had no business taking VT as I didn’t bet it or release that pick to any of my clients, but sometimes finding 7 games on a Saturday card you are confident in is tough and sometimes you just gotta take a chance.  Either way, it was still a good week.

However, before we continue, I need to point out my 2nd half meltdown of the week.  Come on down Colorado!  The Buffs somehow let WSU score 14 points in the final 2 minutes and change in the game that not only cost them a win, but cost me a 6-1 contest week (and my lunch money for the week).  But, alas, I digress.  I almost had two simultaneous collapses when GT mysteriously fumbled instead of taking a knee and allowing NC State to score 14 points in 30 seconds to only lose by 10.  Lucky for the contest, it’s all in 1/2 pt increments, so my GT -9.5 bet was safe.  My GT -10.5 “bar money” selection, however, was not.

Anyway, there’s only so much complaining I can do after going 10-4 the last two weeks, so let’s get to this week’s picks.  Interestingly enough, I loved Texas Tech +7 and up all week, but somehow didn’t include it on my card.  I actually found 10 games that I loved this week and had a hard time narrowing them down.  You will also see 6 of the 7 picks are underdogs.  That’s just the type of bettor I am. Typically from about week 4 on until Bowl Season, my card will primarily consist of underdogs.

 

My Week 5 picks are:

  • Texas +9.5 vs. Oklahoma
  • Iowa +3.5 at Penn State
  • Miami, OH +2.5 vs. Army
  • Southern Miss +2.5 at Navy
  • Northwestern +7.5 vs. Michigan
  • Missouri -3.5 at Kansas State
  • Wyoming +11.5 at Utah State

 

In case you were wondering, my leans were Maryland +13.5, Boston College +20.5 & Tech +8.5.  BC and Maryland were on my board until Leroy’s decided to undercut the key numbers (Maryland from 14 to 13.5, BC from 21 to 20.5), so I decided to lay off.  (Though as a side note I have Maryland +15 and BC +21.5 for a couple peanuts.)

Hopefully the dogs will be barking come Saturday and yes, I may have to turn to this for extra motivation.

Until next week..