Some College Football Regular Season Win Totals

July 26, 2011

College Football is right around the corner.  As I type this, actually, we’re just a mere 36 days and some change away until kick-off.

The Hilton in Vegas just released some College Football Regular Season Win totals. The entire list can be found here.  Below are a couple Overs I find appealing and some Unders that will put coin, or potentially multiple coins, in your pocket.

Agree?  Disagree?  Feel free to let me know your opinion…

Overs I like

Tennessee Over 6.5
There are some issues along the defensive front 7 (only return one starter), but I like the direction Dooley is taking the Vols.  Schedule is pretty manageable too. Wins vs. Montana, Cincinnati, Buffalo, Middle Tennessee and Vandy seem certain. @Kentucky also looks good. Meaning for this bet to hit, Tennessee only has to take down 1 of the following: @Florida, Georgia, LSU, South Carolina or @Arkansas.  Seem very doable. I expect QB Tyler Bray to have a big year and lead the Volunteers to 7 or even 8 wins. Take Tennessee OVER 6.5.

Michigan State Over 7.5
Even though a repeat of the 11-2 dream season isn’t likely, MSU returns a 3rd year starter at QB, all three RBs who contributed in 2010, plus a good amount of talented WRs. The defense should be strong on the DL and in the secondary as well.  The overall schedule is not too easy, but there are enough winnable games where MSU should get to 9 wins or so.  The difficult games I see- @ND, @OSU, UM, Wisconsin, @Nebraska, @Iowa and @Northwestern.  From that list, I see, at worst 3-4 and at best 5-2.  Even at the worse case scenerio, those 3 wins + wins over Youngstown State, FAU, CMU, Minny and Indiana will get them to 8 wins and the cover.  Take the Spartans OVER 7.5.

Unders I like

Oklahoma State Under 8.5
It was a dream season for the Pokies last year.  Gone is offensive guru Dana Holgorsen, but back is QB Brandon Weeden and WR Justin Blackmon, so all should be well, right?  WRONG!  Okie State had a very easy and manageable schedule last year, including only facing one team on the road that finished above .500.  This year, the Cowboys play: @Tulsa, @Texas A&M, @Texas, @Missouri,@Texas Tech, plus Oklahoma, who has just owned them as of late, and Arizona in the non-conference. That is just too difficult a schedule for OSU to come close to its 11 wins last year, especially with a defense that only returns 6 starters that underwhelmed in just about every game in 2010.  Play the Pokies UNDER 8.5 as they should get to a max of 8 wins.

LSU Under 9.5
Another team that was filled with smoke and mirrors in 2010.  LSU did win 11 games last year (10 in the Regular Season), but if we go game by game, the Tigers could of easily won 6 or 7.  They needed a goal-line stand to beat UNC, a late punt return by Patrick Peterson (their do-everything special teams guy + best defensive player who’s now in the NFL) to beat WVU, two goal line runs to beat Tennessee, a fake FG to beat Florida, and a 20 point 4th quarter effort to take care of Ole Miss.  So again, this team was very lucky to win as many games as they did.  Add in a MUCH harder schedule in 2011, vs. Oregon, @Miss State, @WVU, @Tenn, @Alabama, @Ole Miss, plus Arkansas, Florida and Auburn and it seems highly unlikely LSU will come close to repeat its 2010 success.  Take LSU UNDER 9.5 as the Tigers could finish 3rd or 4th in the SEC West.